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East Africa Poised to Lead Africa’s Economic Growth

East Africa Poised to Lead Africa's Economic Growth

East Africa is set to reclaim its position as Africa’s fastest-growing region this year and next, according to projections from the African Development Bank (AfDB).

The average real GDP growth for the 13 economies in East Africa is forecasted to rise to 4.9 percent in 2024 and further to 5.7 percent in 2025, the AfDB reported on Thursday. This positive outlook persists despite anticipated economic contractions in Sudan and South Sudan due to ongoing conflicts in these oil-producing nations.

The growth in East Africa will be driven by robust government spending and strategic investments aimed at enhancing internal connectivity and facilitating trade with neighboring countries. Additionally, ongoing efforts to modernize agricultural production and increase productivity in the services sector are expected to contribute significantly to this economic acceleration.

Africa’s overall economic growth is projected to average 4 percent both this year and next, positioning the continent as the world’s second fastest-growing region after Asia.

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Approximately 40 African countries are expected to see higher growth rates this year, with 17 economies predicted to expand by more than 5 percent. This number could increase to 24 economies in the following year, according to the AfDB.

Following East Africa, West Africa is projected to achieve 4.2 percent growth this year, Central Africa 4.1 percent, and North Africa 3.6 percent. Southern Africa is expected to lag with a growth rate of 2.2 percent.

However, several risks could threaten this growth, including persistent inflationary pressures and high commodity prices, which might trigger further price increases, exacerbate poverty, and delay monetary easing. Climate shocks also pose a significant risk to Africa’s recovery, with extreme weather conditions such as flooding in the east and drought in the south adversely affecting economies, the AfDB noted.

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