The upcoming election has shifted dramatically since President Joe Biden withdrew and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. This sets up a potential historic moment: will America elect its first female president, or will Donald Trump win a second term?
Current Polling Status
Since Harris entered the race in late July, she has consistently led Trump in national polls, even reaching a nearly four-point lead by late August. However, her numbers have stabilized since early September, even after their debate on September 10, which drew around 70 million viewers.
While national polls show Harris in a good position, they can’t predict the election’s outcome due to the U.S. Electoral College system, where each state has a certain number of votes based on its population.
Swing State Dynamics
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In crucial battleground states, polls indicate a tight race, with no clear leader in most.
- Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina: Trump recently held a slight lead after fluctuating since August.
- Nevada: Harris has a small lead.
- Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin: Harris has maintained a lead, but these races have tightened recently.
Biden was trailing Trump by nearly five points across these swing states before he stepped down, highlighting the changing dynamics with Harris as the nominee.
Polling Methodology and Trust
The polling data comes from 538, which aggregates various reputable polls. They aim for quality by only including polls from organizations that meet transparency and methodological standards.
While the current polls show Harris and Trump closely matched in swing states, past elections have seen polls underestimate Trump’s support. Pollsters are trying to improve their methods, but predicting turnout and voter preferences remains challenging.
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