The Government says Zimbabwe’s economy remained broadly stable during the First Quarter of 2026 despite growing global uncertainty caused by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Cabinet considered and noted the First Quarter 2026 Economic Developments and Outlook report presented by the Minister of Finance, Economic Development and Investment Promotion, Honourable Mthuli Ncube.
“The global developments pose risks to Zimbabwe’s balance of payments, inflation, exchange rate stability, agricultural production, and foreign currency reserves,” he said.
However, Prof. Ncube noted that the domestic economy has remained stable and resilient due to sound macro-economic policies, a successful rainfall season, and continued economic reforms.
“The domestic economy has remained broadly resilient, anchored by sustained macro-economic stability and the successful rainfall season that has underpinned agricultural activity and continued policy reforms that are supporting and enhancing the ease of doing business,” said Prof. Ncube.
The report noted that commodity markets experienced renewed upward pressure and heightened volatility during the first quarter of the year, largely because of geopolitical tensions affecting global energy supply chains.
According to Prof. Ncube, rising production and transport costs are contributing to inflationary pressures, but measures are being implemented to protect jobs, sustain livelihoods, and cushion citizens from rising costs.
Economic growth for 2026 is projected at around 5%, mainly driven by a strong recovery in agriculture and continued expansion in the mining sector.
“Economic growth is still projected to moderate around 5% in 2026, reflecting anticipated strong agriculture sector recovery and mining sector growth underpinning overall growth of the economy,” he said.
The report also warned that increasing fertiliser prices as well as higher shipping and insurance costs are raising agricultural input costs, with possible negative effects on crop yields, food security, and economic activity.
To help contain inflation and lower production costs, Prof. Ncube said Government has already removed some taxes on diesel.
On fiscal performance, the Minister highlighted improved revenue collection and expenditure management.
“Fiscal developments in 2026 have so far been anchored on continued revenue recovery and expenditure containment, with total revenues projected to reach US$9.4 billion against a total expenditure of US$9.0 billion,” he said.
The report further showed that inflation continues to decline significantly compared to levels recorded in 2025.
Year-on-year inflation fell from above 90% in mid-2025 to 4.1% in January 2026 before easing further to 3.8% in February. Inflation slightly increased to 4.4% in March following crude oil price increases linked to Middle East tensions.
“This sustained decline highlights the effectiveness of stabilization measures implemented by the Government,” Prof. Ncube noted.
Looking ahead, the Minister said export performance is expected to remain strong, supported by gold, platinum group minerals, lithium, and tobacco exports in the medium term.
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