A further 70% drop in Bitcoin to US$5000 next year is one of the “surprise” scenarios that markets may be “under-pricing,” according to the bank’s Global Head of Research Eric Robertsen in a note published on Sunday.
According to Robertsen, demand for Bitcoin as a digital version of gold could shift to the real thing, resulting in a 30% increase in the yellow metal.
This could result in a reversal of interest-rate hikes as economies struggle, as well as more crypto “bankruptcies and a collapse in investor confidence in digital assets,” according to Robertsen.
He emphasised that he was not making predictions, but rather considering scenarios that are materially different from current market consensus.
The question of just what lies ahead for digital assets has arguably never been harder to answer following the collapse of Sam Bankman-Fried’s FTX exchange and sister trading house Alameda Research.
The tremors spreading from the blowup threaten to topple more crypto companies and buffet token prices.
For some, much of the bad news may already be reflected in a more than 60 percent plunge in Bitcoin and a gauge of the top 100 tokens over the past year.
“Our base case is that most forced selling is over, but investors might not be compensated for the market risk incurred in the immediate term,” Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, wrote in a note Friday.
Farrell pointed to ongoing uncertainty surrounding Digital Currency Group, parent company of embattled crypto brokerage Genesis. Creditors to Genesis are seeking options to try to keep the brokerage from falling into bankruptcy. – Bloomberg
In other news,
Western countries set a price ceiling for Russian oil
While the crisis in Ukraine continues, Western nations have been debating how to reduce Russia’s oil earnings without creating severe disruptions to energy markets in which Russia plays a significant role.
They believe they have found an innovative solution: starting today, the G-7 (a group of major democracies) and Australia will impose a price restriction on Russian oil of $60 per barrel…continue reading