Yevgeny Prigozhin, the chief of the Wagner mercenary group, has left the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don with his soldiers.
The group’s departure follows a deal brokered by Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko under which Prigozhin and his mercenary soldiers will avoid prosecution, and Prigozhin will go into exile in Belarus.
Wagner troops took control of the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District in Rostov on Saturday morning and began to advance towards Moscow in a move President Vladimir Putin described as a betrayal and an act of treason.
China, North Korea probably ‘taking notes’ from Wagner debacle: Analyst
Leif-Eric Easley, an associate professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul, says Wagner’s rebellion is likely to have implications even in the Asia Pacific.
Putin has moved closer to China since launching his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, and agreed to a “new era” of cooperation after President Xi Jinping visited Moscow in March.
“Although not capable of regime change, the Wagner rebellion is a dramatic indicator that Putin’s policies are unsustainable,” Easley said in emailed comments. “There will be implications for the Russia-China-North Korea bloc, and officials in Beijing and Pyongyang are no doubt taking notes to avoid repeating Moscow’s mistakes.”
‘The Tsar has taken a hit’: Wagner mutiny undermines Putin
GZERO Media, which is part of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, says that Putin’s supporters and critics will find plenty to ponder in the short-lived Wagner rebellion and the Kremlin’s response.
“No matter how you slice it, the Tsar has taken a hit here,” wrote Russia specialist Alex Kliment.
“One of his own men, and a reasonably well-known figure in Russia, led an ‘armed rebellion’ that practically cakewalked to the capital. Putin was clearly reluctant to use force to quash the threat on the spot – perhaps he was wary of turning a populist ultranationalist like Prigozhin into a martyr – and he had to call in Alexander Lukashenko to sort it out. It’s hard to see how any of that leaves Putin looking stronger, more competent, or more secure than he did on Thursday evening.”
Kliment also includes a reminder that Wagner has as many as 50,000 men, while Prigozhin was also behind the troll farms that tried to meddle in the US elections in 2016.
