Iran launched drones and missiles at Israel in response to a deadly strike on its consulate in Damascus, Syria. Although Israel has not claimed responsibility for the strike, it is widely believed to have been behind it.
This is the first direct attack on Israel by Iran. Prior to this incident, Israel and Iran had been engaged in a covert war, targeting each other’s assets without taking ownership. This covert conflict intensified during the ongoing war in Gaza, which started when the Palestinian group Hamas attacked Israeli communities in October.
The two countries were formal allies until Iran underwent an Islamic revolution in 1979, adopting an ideology that opposes Israel’s existence and seeks its eradication. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has referred to Israel as a “cancerous tumor” that will unquestionably be eliminated.
Israel views Iran as an existential threat based on its rhetoric, support for forces committed to destroying Israel, funding and arming of Palestinian groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and its suspected pursuit of nuclear weapons. Iran denies these allegations. Iran claims that its attack on Israel on Saturday was a response to the April 1 airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus, which resulted in the deaths of senior Iranian commanders.
Iran holds Israel responsible for the airstrike, considering it a violation of its sovereignty. Although Israel has not publicly admitted to the attack, it is widely presumed to have been involved. The targeted strike on the consulate follows a series of air attacks on Iranian targets commonly attributed to Israel.
Numerous high-ranking IRGC commanders have been killed in recent airstrikes in Syria. The IRGC uses Syria as a transit route to supply Hezbollah with arms and equipment, including precision missiles. Israel is attempting to disrupt these deliveries while also preventing Iran from bolstering its military presence in Syria. Iran has developed a network of allies and proxies in the Middle East, forming an “axis of resistance” against US and Israeli interests in the region.
Iran offers varying degrees of support to these groups. Syria is Iran’s most crucial ally, and Iran, alongside Russia, played a key role in assisting the Syrian government’s survival during the civil war.
Hezbollah is the most powerful armed group in Lebanon backed by Iran. They have been engaged in frequent cross-border fire with Israel since the outbreak of war between Israel and Hamas. As a result, tens of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border have been forced to flee their homes.
Iran supports various Shia militias in Iraq, which have launched rocket attacks on US bases in Iraq, Syria, and Jordan. The US retaliated after three of its soldiers were killed at a military outpost in Jordan.
In Yemen, Iran provides assistance to the Houthi movement, which controls the most densely populated areas of the country. The Houthis have fired missiles and drones at Israel to show their support for Hamas in Gaza. They have also been targeting commercial shipping near Israeli shores, sinking at least one vessel. In response, the US and UK have targeted Houthi positions.
Iran also supplies weapons and training to Palestinian armed groups, including Hamas. In October of last year, Hamas launched an attack on Israel, triggering the current conflict in Gaza and drawing in Iran, its proxies, and Israel’s allies in the wider Middle East. However, Iran denies any direct role in the October attack.
Geographically, Iran is much larger than Israel and has a population of nearly 90 million, almost ten times the size of Israel’s population. However, this does not necessarily translate into greater military power.
Iran has heavily invested in missiles and drones, having a vast arsenal of its own. It has also provided significant amounts of these weapons to its proxies, such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. However, Iran lacks modern air defense systems and fighter jets. It is believed that Russia is cooperating with Iran to improve these capabilities in exchange for military support Tehran has provided in the conflict with Ukraine. Iran has provided Shahed attack drones, and there are reports that Russia is seeking to manufacture these weapons itself.
In contrast, Israel possesses one of the most advanced air forces in the world. According to the IISS military balance report, Israel has a minimum of 14 squadrons of jets, including F-15s, F-16s, and the latest F-35 stealth jet. Israel also has experience conducting strikes deep inside enemy territory.
Israel is widely believed to have its own nuclear weapons, although it maintains an official policy of deliberate ambiguity.
Iran, on the other hand, does not possess nuclear weapons and denies attempting to develop them through its civilian nuclear program.
In the past year, the global nuclear watchdog discovered uranium particles enriched to 83.7% purity, very close to weapons-grade, at Iran’s Fordo site. Iran attributes these enrichment level fluctuations to “unintended fluctuations.”
Iran has been openly enriching uranium to 60% purity for over two years, which violates the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers.However, the deal has been on the verge of collapse since US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew and imposed crippling sanctions on Iran in 2018. Initially, Israel had opposed the nuclear deal.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu summed up the situation by saying, “We blocked. We intercepted. Together we will win.”
Foreign policy advisor Tom Fletcher, who has advised multiple UK prime ministers and served as a former UK ambassador to Lebanon, described Iran’s attack as a “chilling signal of Iran’s capability and reach.”
Fletcher also warned that both Iran and Israel’s leaderships were under pressure domestically, facing international criticism, and were clearly willing to take risks.
However, Fletcher noted that Iran’s attack seemed to have been carefully planned, indicating that Iran had actually warned in advance. He compared this situation to his experiences as ambassador to Lebanon, where exchanges of fire were meant to display capability without necessarily escalating the conflict.
Fletcher also considered it a positive sign that Iran chose to respond directly rather than through Hezbollah. Some Israelis have called for military action to push the Lebanese armed group away from the border.
Sanam Vakil from the Chatham House think tank viewed the attack as a success for Iran, as it breached Israel’s sovereignty for the first time. However, Vakil emphasized that the strikes were strategically targeted at military installations with the intention of minimizing damage and casualties.
